The Trump Administration 2.0 began with an ‘America First Trade Policy’. Mr. Trump has issued several Executive Orders and Proclamations since assuming his office on January 20, 2025. The significant among them is an increase in tariffs across the board by 10 per cent which is slated to increase to higher tariffs on some select 57 countries with which the US has major trade deficit in goods. Although the latter hike in tariffs is put on hold till July 8 2025, the actions by the US have created enough turmoil in international trade, with some countries imposing retaliatory tariffs, while other countries, including India, having chosen to negotiate a trade deal with the US. This article covers various aspects of tariffs by the US, the background and the impact of these measures on the Indian economy and the World.
INTRODUCTION
The recent tariff measures by the United States of America (“US”) have thrown much of the global trade in goods into disarray. The frequent changes to the policy, particularly the ‘tariff-on’ and ‘tariff-off’ policy, have made business planning difficult for companies, particularly those having exposure to the US. The threat of tariffs has made many countries rush to the US to secure trade deals to avoid punitive tariffs for their export goods. Businesses thrive when there is certainty in policy measures, but in the face of these frequent threats and policy changes, is it possible for a country or business to avoid the US market? The answer lies in some numbers. The US is the largest economy in the World, with a GDP of $29.18 trillion, i.e. about 26% of the World’s GDP.1 According to the World Bank, the US is the largest consumer in the World with an annual consumption expenditure of $22.54 trillion, which represents about 30% of the World’s annual consumption expenditure2 despite having only 4.22% of the World’s population3, giving it a high annual GDP per capita of $85,810. The American consumers spent about $6.1 trillion on goods alone in 2024.4 Hence, in today’s globalised economy, it may not be possible for a business to simply ignore the US consumer. This brings us to the issues which this Article wishes to address, namely, to understand the recent measures by the US and their rationale, their basis in law – both the local US law and the World Trade Organization (“WTO”) law and analyzing its impact on the economy and business.
1 GDP of 2024 at current prices as per International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/USA 2 Source: World Bank, 2023 estimates, https://data.worldbank.org/ [both goods and services, household final consumption expenditure (private consumption) and general government final consumption expenditure] 3 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ 4 https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-19-trillion-consumer-economy-in-one-chart/#:~:text=Where%20Americans%20Spend%20Their%20Money,as%20well%20(%2417.8T).
Section I of the Article provides the foundational basis for the current US policy, particularly the shift in policy to tariffs. Section II gives a brief of the US legislation and the actions taken by the US President till date with insights on ongoing litigation in the US courts. Section III discusses the legality of US actions under the GATT/WTO. Section IV discusses the impact of the US tariffs on the global economy with changing supply chain dynamics as well as opportunities and threats for Indian businesses. The Article closes with the concluding remarks on US tariffs and their impact.
I. SHIFT IN US TRADE POLICY TO TARIFFS
On 20th January, 2025, the first day of taking charge as the US President, Mr. Donald J. Trump (“Trump”) issued a series of Executive Orders (“EO”) and proclamations. Among them was the EO titled ‘America First Trade Policy’ (“AFTP EO”) which gave insights into the policy which the President would be following in days to come. The AFTP EO stated that the American economy, the American worker, and the National security of America will be at the forefront of US policy decisions. It also stated that the aim of the new US administration is to promote investment and manufacturing in the US. One of the ‘National Security’ risks highlighted in the AFTP EO was the ‘unfair and unbalanced trade’ with its major trading partners. To put a perspective, the table below provides the trade balance of the US with its major trading partners.

The table shows that in 2024, the US had an overall trade deficit in goods of $1.29 trillion, which means that the US imported more goods than it exported to other nations. The highest trade deficit was with China, at $319 billion, followed by the EU at $203.5 billion, Mexico at $176 billion and Vietnam at $129.37. There was a trade deficit even with Canada, India and other nations. On the services front, in 2024, the US’s exports were $1107.8 billion, and imports were $814.4 billion, giving a surplus of ~ $293.4 billion.5 Even if one offsets this surplus, the overall trade deficit in goods and services for the US in 2024 was close to $1 trillion.
5 https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024
The ever-increasing trade deficit in goods has been a subject matter of debate between economists in the US for several decades. The trade deficit in goods has continuously increased from $690.16 billion in 2010 to $1.29 trillion in 2024, as shown in the graph below.

The burgeoning US trade deficit can be explained with the textbook theory of macro-economic factors of disbalance between savings and investment rates. In simple terms, this implies that Americans have been spending more money on consumption expenditure (i.e., buying more goods than they produce) with low savings and investment spending rates. This additional spending goes to foreign goods, which is then financed through borrowing from foreign lenders (US treasury bonds) or foreigners purchasing US assets.
Some policymakers argue that macro factors of the stronger dollar (which encourages imports and discourages exports), more buying power of consumers in the US, and manufacturing shift to lower labour cost jurisdictions would naturally lead to higher trade deficits. While others argue that shifting manufacturing to low-cost jurisdictions like the ASEAN (Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.) and other parts of the World like China has been a result of unfair foreign government policies and incentivisation. It is argued that the rise of China during the last three decades as a World’s powerhouse of manufacturing, resulting from unfair trade practices of the Communist regime in Beijing, is a major cause of the situation. In particular, it is argued that Beijing’s State control and subsidisation of manufacturing led to the establishment of huge capacities in China far exceeding the domestic demand, boosting of exports through unfair incentives, tax enforcement of the IPR regime, manipulation of currency through devaluation to boost exports, unfair labour and environmental practices of China has led to the situation.
One set of policymakers focused their efforts on tackling this situation by addressing the inherent deficiencies like boosting investments in infrastructure and targeted incentives to increase the domestic manufacturing base. The previous US President Biden’s policy initiatives were efforts in that direction, such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), formally known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) which focused on funding a wide range of infrastructure projects, the Build America, Buy America Act (BABA) which mandated that iron, steel, manufactured goods, and construction materials used in US federal funded infrastructure projects must be produced in the US, the CHIPS and Science Act which focused on boosting US semiconductor manufacturing. A similar set of policy initiatives may also be seen in the Indian context, like the ‘Make in India’ policy and infrastructure parks (Electronics Parks, Plastic Parks, PM MITRA Textile Parks, Mega Food Parks, etc.).
The other set of policymakers believe that directly disincentivizing or curtailing imports, inter alia through Tariff measures, is an immediate solution to the situation. The current US President Trump’s policy measures by imposing punitive import tariffs are efforts in that direction, even if it involves disrupting the rule based international trade and the principles established by the WTO.
Hence, there is a clear shift in the US policy under the new administration with tariffs as one of the main policy instruments. Tariffs have also been used by the US as a threat to negotiate better trade deals with its trading partners. With this background in mind, the next section looks at the relevant legislation used by the US in its renewed policy.
II. LEGISLATION USED BY THE US FOR IMPOSING TARIFFS AND ACTIONS TAKEN THEREUNDER
In his first term (2017-2021), Trump had used Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, 1962 (“TEA”) in 2018 to impose import tariffs of 25% and 10% on Steel and Aluminium, respectively, subject to some product / country-specific exemptions. These tariffs were expanded to include specified derivatives of Steel and Aluminium in 2020. In 2018, Trump also used Section 301 of the Trade Act, 1974 (“TA”) to impose tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25% on several goods of China (covered in four lists ranging from $34 billion in list 1 to $300 billion in list 4). These tariffs continue to exist today and have been further expanded in Trump’s second term.
In his second term (2025-), effective March 12, 2025, Trump used Section 232 of the TEA to expand the scope of import tariffs on Steel and Aluminium by bringing both on par at 25% each, withdrawing all previous exemptions, and significantly increasing the scope of coverage of derivatives products. The President has also used the same section to impose tariffs of 25% on specified Automobiles (“Auto”) and Auto parts from all countries, subject to quota-based exemptions.6 Due to the close integration of Auto supply chains between the US, Canada and Mexico, the Tariffs on Autos, which qualify the USMCA rules of origin,7 have been exempted to the extent of US content of such vehicles. Further, the USMCA qualified Auto parts imported into the US from Canada and Mexico have also been exempted.
6 Auto Tariffs apply only to passenger vehicles (sedans, sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles, minivans, and cargo vans) and light trucks. Auto parts cover Engines and engine parts, Transmissions and powertrain parts, and Electrical components of passenger vehicles and light trucks. Auto tariffs were effective April 3, 2025, and Auto parts Tariffs were effective May 3, 2025. 7 USMCA is the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and become effective July 1, 2020, in Trump’s first term.
In addition, Trump has extensively used another US Act, called as International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 1977 (“IEEPA”), to impose import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China (including Hong Kong) by taking the cue of fentanyl trade8, which has claimed to cause a situation of ‘National Emergency’ and public health crisis in the US. A tariff of 10% was imposed on goods from China and Hong Kong with effect from 4th February, 2025, which was increased to 20% effective 12th March, 2025. Similarly, effective 4th March, 2025, the goods from Mexico and Canada have imposed a tariff of 25% (except potash/specified energy products having a tariff rate of 10%). This tariff measure was later amended to exempt USMCA-qualified goods.
The US President has also used IEEPA to impose a baseline tariff of 10% with effect from April 5, 2025, on all countries (including India)and a higher-country specific reciprocal tariff on 57 listed countries varying from 11% to 50%9 with effect from April 9, 2025 (currently on pause for 90 days, till 8th July, 2025). For China10, the reciprocal tariffs were increased to 125% from April 10, 2025, due to retaliation by China with similar tariffs on US goods (the 125% tariff has been suspended for 90 days and rolled back to 10% with effect from 14th May, 2025, pending negotiations between US and China).
8 Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid drug used for pain relief and anesthetic. The US has argued that Canada and Mexico have permitted the Fentanyl drug to flow into the US through its porous borders creating a situation of National Emergency and public health crisis in the US. 9 India is amongst the 57 countries and India’s tariff rate is specified to be 26%. 10 Includes Hong Kong and Macau
Further, under the IEEPA, the US has withdrawn the de-minimis exemption11 for goods, including international parcels from China and Hong Kong (effective 2nd May, 2025).
11 A de-minimis exemption is exemption given under US law to goods of value less than $800 from duties and certain procedural requirements at the time of imports into the US.
The above tariffs imposed by the US are in addition to normal customs duties (called MFN rates), fees, taxes, exactions, or charges applicable to imported articles. Further, the above tariffs stack on each other, i.e., becomes cumulative unless otherwise specified.12
| Legislations | Conditions and Actions | Previous illustrative uses and the current usage |
| Sec 232 of TEA | » If certain imports threaten the ‘National Security’ of the US.
» Authorises the President to bypass Congress and modify /adjust the imports by tariffs/quotas. » Investigation by the Department of Commerce (“DOC”) and a report by the Secretary of Commerce to the President is a pre-condition to take action. |
» Last imposed tariffs or other trade restrictions three decades before in 1986.
Shift in policy under Trump’s first term. » The President opened 8 investigations, and Tariffs were imposed under 2 such cases on Steel and Aluminium. » Other investigations were on Auto and Auto parts, etc. but no actions were taken, or agreements were reached with countries. Continued actions under Trump’s second term » Expanded the tariffs on Aluminium and Aluminium derivatives to 25%. » Expanded the coverage of derivatives of Steel and Aluminium. » Imposed Auto and Auto parts tariffs of 25% from all countries, subject to some quota-based exemptions for Auto parts (acting on the 2019 report of the Secretary of Commerce). |
| Sec 301 of TA | » United States Trade Representative (“USTR”) does an investigation and recommends action to enforce US rights under a trade agreement or to respond to certain foreign unfair trade practices.
» Consultations by USTR with targeted Government. » If the determination is affirmative, it decides actions to be taken. » Authorises the President to impose duties or other import restrictions and actions.
|
» Since the formation of WTO in 1995, the US used this measure to build cases and pursue dispute settlement at the WTO.
Shift in policy under Trump’s first term. » 2018 – China was acted against due to its IPR violations. » 2019 – The EU (including the UK) were acted against due to their subsidies on large civil aircraft (Tariffs later suspended in July 2021) » 2019 – Investigation on France against its ‘discriminatory’ Digital Services Taxes (DST) (Tariffs later suspended due to larger investigation on countries adopting similar taxes). » 2020 – Several countries, including India, were investigated for their ‘discriminatory’ foreign DST laws (No tariffs currently, pending negotiations). » 2020 – Vietnam was investigated for their ‘unfair currency valuation’ and use of ‘illegally harvested timber’ (Tariffs not imposed based on an agreement with Vietnam to improve its currency valuation and timber trade practices) |
| IEEPA | » Unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in substantial part outside the US, to the National Security, foreign policy, and economy of the US.
» Power given to the President with some exceptions and checks »Report to be submitted later to Congress on actions taken. |
»Trump, in his second term, has used this legislation extensively to impose tariffs on China / Mexico /Canada for failure to check the Fentanyl trade.
» Imposed baseline tariff of 10% on all countries due to ‘unfair and unbalanced trade” position with trading partners. » Higher country specific reciprocal tariff on 57 countries (currently on pause for 90 days, till 8th July, 2025). »Tariffs on de-minimis shipments from China and Hong Kong. |
12 As per another executive order issued on April 29, 2025, the goods which are subject to Auto/Auto parts tariffs under Sec 232 of TEA will not be subject to Tariffs imposed on Canada/Mexico under IEEPA or Tariffs on Steel/Aluminium under Sec 232 of TEA. Further, the goods which are subject to IEEPA tariffs on Canada/Mexico will not be subject to Tariffs on Steel / Aluminium under Sec 232 of TEA.
The tariffs imposed by the US have been challenged in several lawsuits filed across the US, particularly by the Democratic States, including the States of Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New York and Oregon. In particular, the reciprocal tariffs have been challenged in the US courts on the grounds that the IEEPA does not specifically authorise the President to impose tariffs and that the US trade deficit cannot be equated to a “National Emergency” as contemplated under the IEEPA. In addition, the State of California has also filed a lawsuit to halt the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which the State believes was not taken with Congressional approval and will negatively impact its economy. In a recent decision of the Court of International Trade (CIT) in V.O.S. Vs. The USA, the CIT at Manhattan, New York has set aside all Trump’s actions under IEEPA and accordingly invalidated the reciprocal tariffs (10% baseline and higher country specific tariffs) and tariffs imposed on China/Canada/Mexico for failure to curb the fentanyl trade. The CIT held that Trump exceeded his authority granted by the Congress under the IEEPA to impose tariffs. The US government has appealed this decision before the Court of Appeals for Federal Circuit which has temporarily granted a stay on the CIT’s decision until the court hears both parties.
III. WTO/ GATT PERSPECTIVE OF US TARIFFS
“In the pre-World War II era, the market access for trade in goods was based on trading partners’ economic or political clout. With uncertainty and protectionist measures by different countries to further their economic objectives, several countries got together and entered into an agreement called the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, 1947), which formed the basis for rule-based international trade. This agreement was signed in Geneva in 1947 by 23 countries. Both India and the US were parties to the GATT. The GATT was a crucial step towards rebuilding the global economy after World War II with an aim to reduce trade barriers and promote free and fair trade among partner nations. The GATT aimed to reduce tariffs and eliminate other trade barriers to promote free trade. Importantly, it was the US which played a leading role in the creation of GATT because it wanted liberalisation of protectionist policies to help the US export more goods to other countries. It was the GATT, 1947, which, after several rounds of multilateral negotiations, led to the formation of WTO in 1995 by the Marrakesh Agreement, signed in Marrakesh, Morocco. While the WTO replaced GATT, the principles of GATT are still incorporated into the WTO agreement.
One of the basic principles enshrined in GATT/WTO is the Most Favored Nation (MFN) principle under Article I. The MFN principle essentially states that if a country grants a trade advantage (like lower tariffs) to one trading partner, it must unconditionally and immediately extend the same advantage to all other WTO members. Another important Article II of GATT is the schedule of concessions of each member nation, which binds the member not to increase the customs duty rates beyond the bound rate given in its schedule.
Article XXI(b)(iii) of GATT covers the national security exception, which allows the members to violate the GATT principles if such actions are “taken in time of war or other emergency in international relations”. The US has lost several cases at the WTO wherein it violated the GATT principles by invoking the national security exception under Article XXI(b)(iii). The argument of the US before the WTO’s judicial Panels, that this exception is ‘self-judging’ and cannot be subject matter of judicial review, has been rejected by the WTO panels. In the US-Origin Marking (Hong Kong, China) case,13 the argument raised by the US that human rights violations in Hong Kong can be used as a basis to violate the GATT disciplines was rejected by the WTO panel. It was held that such human rights violations in HK, even if evidenced, cannot be escalated to the threshold of requisite gravity to constitute an “emergency in international relations”. This phrase was held to refer to a state of affairs of the utmost gravity – a breakdown or near-breakdown in the relations between states.
13 WT/DS597/R (WTO Panel Report dated 21 December 2022)
More importantly, the US also lost WTO cases relating to the imposition of tariffs under Sec 301 of the TA against China14 and under Sec 232 of the TEA on Steel and Aluminium.15
14 The US defense built under Article XX(a) which deals with general exception of “necessary to protect public morals” was rejected on the ground that there was no genuine relationship of “ends and means” and hence it was held that the US had violated GATT disciplines relating to MFN and bound rates (WT/DS543/R WTO Panel Report dated 15 Sep 2020) 15 US’s defense under Article XXI(b)(iii) was rejected – measures not “taken in time of war or other emergency in international relations” and hence it was held that the US had violated MFN, bound rates and Quantitative Restrictions under GATT (WT/DS544/R WTO Panel Report dated 9 Dec 2022)
It may be worthwhile to note that since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new judges to the WTO’s Appellate Body (AB) due to complaints over judicial activism at the WTO and concerns over US sovereignty.16 This has brought the WTO’s dispute settlement system to a standstill making it effectively non-functional. There are currently no members in the seven member AB with the term of the last sitting member expired on 30th November, 2020.17 Hence, today, all appeals filed by the WTO members including the US against the Panel rulings are pending adjudication at WTO’s AB with no judges in place. It would not be out of place to say that the country which argued for liberalisation leading to the creation of GATT / WTO has itself turned back full circle to bring in an era of protectionism in trade.
16 The World Trade Organization: The Appellate Body Crisis | Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business | CSIS 17 https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/ab_members_descrp_e.htm
IV. IMPACT OF THE US TARIFFS ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY AND THE WORLD
In today’s globalised World, supply chains are integrated across nations, and most products pass through manufacturing stages in several countries before landing in the hands of the consumer in the country of consumption. If the country of consumption is the US, the moot question which arises is what will be the tariff rate applicable to such product at the time of import into the US? Whether it is the country where the principal raw material was manufactured (say, China) or where further processing on it was undertaken (say, India). This question assumes importance because US tariffs are now based on the country to which the product belongs. Complicating the situation is the test of the last ‘substantial transformation’ applied by the US in judging this criterion with a plethora of complex judicial rulings in the US courts. This has led to several supply chain shifts by companies away from China to avoid punitive US Tariffs.
In addition, reciprocal tariffs under IEEPA provide an exemption to the US content of the product if such US content is at least 20% of the total value of the product. Further, tariffs under Sec 232 on Steel and Aluminium derivatives are exempt if the Aluminum is smelted and cast in the US or Steel is melted and poured in the US. These issues are leading the companies to rethink their supply chain modelling to reduce the impact of US tariffs and stay export competitive.
While the threat of US tariffs remains, there are certain opportunities for Indian businesses looking to export more to the US. A look at the table below shows that India is exporting products to the US under Chapters overlapping with China, which gives an opportunity to the Indian business to increase their exports on account of the present 30% tariffs on China vs. 10% tariffs on Indian goods under the IEEPA.

With the India-US currently engaged in intense negotiations for the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), it still needs to be seen whether the Indian Government can negotiate a deal with the US which can lead to enhanced export competitiveness of Indian goods to the US, particularly in labour-intensive sectors like plastics, textiles, gems and jewellery, electronics, pharma and chemicals.
V. CONCLUSION
The US concern stems from an ever-increasing trade deficit in goods with most of its major trading partners. This has led to a discernible shift in the US trade policy to tariff measures. With the WTO in a state of limbo particularly due to the non-functional Appellate Body (AB) mechanism, the US seems to be not concerned with the legality of its measures with the GATT / WTO disciplines. As a result of US tariffs, the businesses World over, including in India, are forced to rethink the supply chains of their goods. The present situation is both a threat and an opportunity for Indian businesses and the success will depend upon how the businesses can rekindle their decision-making and whether the Indian government is able to negotiate a good deal with the US helping the Indian exporter community.











