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February 2010

Millennium Development Goals: A century more to go?

By S. Viswanathan | Chartered Accountant
Reading Time 8 mins
John Rawls, whose theory of justice has been analysed in great detail by Amartya Sen in his latest book, ‘The Idea of Justice’, has identified the following principles of justice:

Each person has an equal right to a fully adequate scheme of equal basic liberties which is compatible with a similar scheme of liberties for all.

Social and economic inequalities are to satisfy two conditions. First, they must be attached to offices and positions open to all under conditions of fair equality of opportunity; and second, they must be to the greatest benefit of the least advantaged members of society.

It is worth recalling Rawls’ views on justice and equality. He stressed the so called “primary goods” which are necessary to achieve various objectives, and he included in primary goods liberties, opportunities, income and self-respect.

It will be apt to remember Rawls when we talk of justice in the context of India. It is generally agreed that the economy has seen unprecedented growth this decade, even after allowing for the blip last year. It is also an accepted view that post-1991, the years have unleashed the entrepreneurial spirit of Indians and the realization of aspirations of many. So far, so good! But have all Indians seen the improvement in the standard of living and also the increase in opportunities?

The GDP figures do not convey the complete picture. It gives a macro picture of an economy whose people may be growing (or de-growing) economically at varying percentages. To talk optimistically or pessimistically about the economy based on the GDP growth for the population as a whole is akin to the person wanting to cross a river which has an average depth of 4 ft, but much greater depth at several points.

We do not have to reinvent the wheel to understand how we are doing in eradicating poverty or achieving uniform primary education and so on.

Nine years ago, in September, 2000 the heads of states of various governments met at the Millennium Summit, and then committed to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) by 2015. It was arguably the largest gathering of world leaders in history. MDGs are broadly eight goals ranging from eradication of poverty to ensuring environmental sustainability.

Unfortunately, our pursuit towards achieving these MDGs has not received the attention it deserves. Neither has it captured the headlines nor our politicians’ bytes. When I was the Chairman of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Karnataka last year, on occasions when one could talk on this matter to senior government officials and ministers, one could not see in most of them the imperative to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, although there was awareness.

With only six years to go, a reality check is due.

Goal No. 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

    Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than 1.25 dollar a day

    We still have 41.6% of the population living on less than 1.25 dollars a day. This was 49.4% in 1994, the earliest year for which data is available.

    Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

    The employment to population ratio was 55.4% in 2007, marginally lower than 59% in 1991.

    Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

    This proportion for India is 21%, down by only 3% from the early 90s.

Goal No. 2: Achieve universal primary education

    Ensure that by 2015, children will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

    The net enrolment ratio in primary education has gone up to 94.3%. However, only 65.8% of the pupils will complete primary education. Even Pakistan scores higher with 69.7%! Sri Lanka is way ahead with 93%.

Goal No. 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

    Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

    The ratio of girls to boys in secondary education is 0.83, indicating a vast gender inequality.

Goal No. 4: Reduce child mortality

    Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate

    The under-5 mortality rate (per 1000 live births), though has fallen from 117 in 1990, is still 72. This is higher than even Bangladesh’s 61.

Goal No. 5: Improve maternal health

Reduce by three-fourths, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio

 Maternal mortality (per 100,000 live births) in India was 450 in 2005 (the latest year for which data is available). China has a mortality rate of 45.

Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

Antenatal care coverage (percent of live births) is 74. Sri Lanka is much higher at 99%.

Goal No. 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

    Have halted by 2015, and begun to reverse, the spread of HIV/AIDS.

HIV prevalence (percentage of population 15

– 49 years) is 0.3% in India, down from 0.5% in 2001.

    Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment of HIV/AIDS for all people who need it

Statistics on the proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral is not available for India. This is an important mea-sure about which we do not have public data.

    Have halted by 2015, and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 population) is 168 — not undergone any change since 1990
 

Goal No. 7: Ensure environmental sustainability


Integrate the principles of sustainable development into national policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources.

Proportion of land area covered by forests has increased from 21.5% in 1990 to 22.8% in 2005. Carbon dioxide emission, however, has more than doubled in the same period.


 Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, significant reduction in the rate of loss

Percentage of terrestrial and marine areas protected has increased from 4.1 in 1990 to 4.6 in 2008.

    Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water.

Population using improved water sources (percent-age) has gone up from 71 in 1990 to 89 in 2006. Population using improved sanitation facilities though has doubled in terms of percentage, it is still very low at 28%. Consider Sri Lanka, which has a figure of 86 %.


Goal No. 8: Develop a global partnership for development

    Deal comprehensively with debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures, in order to make debt sustainable in the long-term

Debt service as a percentage of exports has come down from 29.3 in 1990 to 3.7 in 2007.

    In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

Telephone lines per 100 heads of the population have increased from 0.6 in 1990 to 3.2 in 2008. The cellular subscription has dramatically increased from 0.35 in 2000 to 29.24 in 2008.

Amartya Sen, in his book “The Idea of Justice” has remarked that our mental make-up and desires tend to adjust to circumstances; particularly to make life bearable in adverse situations. The hopelessly de-prived may lack the courage to desire any radical change and typically tend to adjust their desires and expectations to what little they see as feasible. They train themselves to take pleasure in small mercies. He further writes that to overlook the intensity of their disadvantage merely because of their ability to build a little joy in their lives, is hardly a good way of achieving an adequate understanding of the demands of social justice.

If a certain proportion of the population has been able to have greater opportunities in the last few years, it will be sheer injustice if this is not avail-able to everyone in the country. The tragic part is, as the data quoted above indicates, we are a long way from achieving what was thought as minimum development goals. The greater tragedy is that the central and state governments do not even talk about where they are vis-à-vis these goals, and what they are doing to reach them.

Come to think of it: If the politician in each constituency sets for himself the above goals and initiates measures to realize them, people will enthusiasti-cally vote for him.

We may be the 12th largest economy in terms of GDP with over $1 trillion gross output, but if 42% of the population still lives on less than 1.25 dollar a day or the availability of improved sanitation facili-ties is only 28%, there is a deep rooted malady.

Our poor may have adjusted themselves to the above circumstances, but to regard this as a normal and acceptable situation is the greatest injustice of all.

Takeaways

Convergence with IFRS, by implication, would mean that entities will have to completely change the way contracts are drafted and accounted for. In a nutshell, for every contract, one would have to follow a systematic process involving some basic tenets:

  •     Identify embedded derivatives in contracts,

  •     Assess whether separate accounting is required, and

  •     Fair valuation, where required, with changes recorded in profit & loss account.

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