The elections have thrown up a
pleasant surprise in the form of a relatively stable government. The stock
markets are booming in anticipation of a fiscal stimulus package and economic
reforms. It is almost as if the markets believe that the worst of the recession
is now behind us and that henceforward it is all smooth sailing for the country.
Is this really justified ?
With a stable government in
place committed to economic reforms, it is highly likely that India would not be
as badly affected by the worldwide recession as other countries, and would be
able to ride out the storm. The real problem facing the country’s growth however
lies elsewhere — in the stability of our neighbourhood. Growth is not
sustainable without stability.
In the last few months, we have
seen an internal battle being waged by the Pakistani Government against the
fundamentalist Taliban, and the threat being posed by such fundamentalist forces
to the very existence of Pakistan. The monster created by the Pakistani
Government now threatens to engulf the entire country. Such proximity to our
borders, given the attitude of such fundamentalist forces towards India and the
violent methods being used to achieve their ends, is bound to create security
problems within India, endangering the prospects of growth. The very thought
that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of such fundamentalists
is a cause of great concern.
On our northern borders, Nepal,
which had so far not posed a problem to India’s security, is facing serious
internal problems. The Maoists who had given up their violent tactics to join
the Government, had to quit. India is being blamed for their plight, and the
Maoists are unlikely to take things lying down. Their making common cause with
China is bound to create security issues for India. Whether the Maoists are in
power or out of power, Nepal is likely to be a thorn in India’s security for the
next few years.
On the eastern front, though
relations with Bangladesh have improved for the time being, the politics of
Bangladesh being what it is, one wonders how long this improved relationship
will last. India’s border debate with China remains unresolved, with issues
suddenly raising their heads from time to time.
To top it all, many Indian
States are facing violent tactics of Maoists and Naxalites. All in all, India
seems to be situated in the most dangerous location worldwide, so far as the
safety and security of its residents are concerned. The top priority of the new
Government should therefore be to take measures to improve the internal and
external security of the country.
This involves not merely the
strengthening of internal security forces and the armed forces, but also making
the right moves in respect of our foreign policy. Economic reforms can take a
country far, but security of life and property is essential for the business
sector to flourish. Over the past decade, India has been seen as an attractive
investment and business destination on account of its comparatively peaceful
atmosphere. To some extent, this image has taken a beating due to the series of
recent terrorist attacks.
No country can hope to be
regarded as an attractive place to do business unless peace prevails there. Take
the cases of Vietnam, Ireland, and so many others. Once ravaged by war or civil
war, these countries were then regarded as death-traps. Today, these are
considered as investment destinations worldwide, on account of the peace and
stability that they have enjoyed for over a decade.
The biggest challenge before
the new Government is to take steps to ensure that peace and internal stability
are maintained, notwithstanding the developments in our immediate neighbourhood.
Our arms purchases, our expenditure on defence and police, should not be victim
to party politics or corruption, but should be regarded as an essential
expenditure for national growth. Our foreign policy should be guided by
long-term considerations of peaceful co-existence and not by short-term
prejudices of the party in power, nor by ambitions of becoming a super power.
This is an opportunity for this Government to show that right approach can make
a difference. Only time will tell whether our hopes will be realised or not !
