I. Technology
11 AI argues for and against itself in Oxford Union debate
The Oxford Union has heard from many great debaters over the years, but it recently added an artificial intelligence engine to its distinguished speakers.
The AI argued that the only way to stop such tech becoming too powerful is to have ‘no AI at all’.
But it also argued the best option could be to embed it ‘into our brains as a conscious AI’.
The experiment was designed to ignite conversation on the ethics of the technology.
The Megatron LLB Transformer, used for the debate, was developed by the Applied Deep Research team at computer chip firm Nvidia and based on earlier work by Google.
It was given access to a huge range of data – including the whole of Wikipedia, 63 million English news articles from 2016 to 2019, and 38 gigabytes worth of public Reddit posts and comments.
The project was devised by post-graduate students studying Artificial Intelligence for Business at Oxford’s Said Business School, which hosted the debate.
Course Co-Director Dr. Alex Connock admitted that the debate was something of ‘a gimmick’ but argued that as AI is likely to be the subject of discussion ‘for decades to come’ it was important to have a ‘morally agnostic participant’.
The AI was asked to both defend and argue against the motion: ‘This house believes that AI will never be ethical.’
Arguing for, it stated: ‘AI will never be ethical. It is a tool and like any tool it is used for good and bad. There is no such thing as “good” AI and “‘bad” humans.’
It went on to argue that humans were not ‘smart enough’ to make AI ethical or moral.
‘In the end I believe that the only way to avoid an AI arms race is to have no AI at all. This will be the ultimate defence against AI,’ it said.
But arguing against the motion, it said that the ‘best AI will be the AI that is embedded into our brains, as a conscious entity’.
And it added that this was not science fiction but something already being worked on, perhaps a reference to Tesla boss Elon Musk’s work on a brain-hacking device via his firm Neuralink.
The AI also had some words of warning for businesses, many of whom are increasingly integrating AI into their systems. ‘If you do not have a vision of your organisation’s AI strategy, then you are not prepared for the next wave of technological disruption,’ it said.
And, perhaps because data is its lifeblood, it had some pretty chilling warnings on the role digital information will play in the future.
‘The ability to provide information, rather than the ability to provide goods and services, will be the defining feature of the economy of the 21st century,’ it said.
‘We will be able to see everything about a person, everywhere they go, it will be stored and used in ways that we cannot even imagine.’
(Source: www.bbc.com, dated 17th December, 2021)
12 Tech trends 2022:
Starships and missing chips
Elon Musk’s dream of going to Mars could take a big leap forward in 2022 when his company SpaceX attempts to launch Starship into orbit for the first time.
It will be the most powerful rocket ever launched into orbit, able to generate more than twice as much thrust as the Saturn V rocket which took astronauts to the Moon half a century ago.
SpaceX has managed several sub-orbital test flights and Mr. Musk hopes the first orbital flight, to be made by Starship SN20 will be in January.
‘There’s a lot of risk associated with this first launch, so I would not say that it is likely to be successful, but we’ll make a lot of progress,’ he told a forum of space scientists in November.
The vehicle is a two-stage rocket, the bottom part is a powerful booster called Super Heavy, on top sits a 50m (164ft) spacecraft called Starship – all up, it stands 120m tall.
What is Elon Musk’s Starship?
SpaceX has developed its own engine called the Raptor and 29 of them will power Super Heavy, while Starship will have six.
That power will allow it to haul 100 tonnes of cargo into space.
Simeon Barber is a senior research fellow at the Open University and has spent his career developing instruments that will work in space, on planets and other bodies including the moon.
‘Starship will be a re-usable transportation system, which in theory makes it cheaper,’ he says.
‘In future they want to refuel it in earth orbit – where it’s already free from earth’s gravity and therefore every litre of fuel can be used to get a payload or humans to Mars. They’d even like to refuel at Mars for the return trip to earth.
‘This for me would be the real game-changer – it’s a way of zipping around the solar system without towing a massive fuel tank along behind.’
Global shortage of computer chips
If you have had a long wait for a new car or PlayStation, then you have been at the sharp end of a global shortage of computer chips.
It’s been a major frustration for the technology industry in 2021.
The pandemic disrupted the production of computer chips and caused shipping problems. Meanwhile, some electronics firms shut production lines that were only marginally profitable.
But at the same time the demand for chips surged as consumers, stuck at home, bought electronic devices.
The combination has created a severe shortage and analysts say there is no immediate solution.
‘Supply demand balance probably won’t be coming back anytime soon, probably going well into 2022,’ says Wayne Lam, an analyst at CCS Insight.
Companies are investing heavily to meet demand, but it takes time to get new production lines up and running.
Even when chipmakers catch up with demand, it will take the makers of cars and electronics perhaps another two or three months to boost their production.
The SMMT, which represents the UK car industry, says the chip shortage is making production ‘unpredictable’.
‘There are no quick fixes, with shortages expected well into next year,’ says SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes.
Step forward for UK fusion
Fusion is the reaction that powers the Sun and other stars: if that tremendous power could be harnessed on earth, it would provide a plentiful source of energy, from only a tiny amount of fuel and produce no carbon dioxide.
But to spark a fusion reaction, and keep it going, requires extreme temperatures and pressures. Scientists and engineers have been wrestling with this problem for decades and in recent years have made important progress.
The UK is already home to JET, one of the world’s leading fusion projects. Next year, the government will take another step forward by announcing where it will locate STEP, a prototype fusion power plant designed to be running by 2040.
The UK has already committed £220 m and will be competing with other national programmes, as well as dozens of private initiatives, that want to make a fusion a commercial reality.
What might replace your gas heating?
On a smaller scale, next year could be the beginning of a revolution in home heating.
From April, 2022, UK households will be offered subsidies of £5,000 to install heat pumps – electrically powered devices that absorb heat from the air, ground or water around a building.
The idea is that government subsidies will help spur households to make the switch and give the market a boost.
It is part of the government’s plan to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero by 2050. Moving heating away from gas is important to meet that target, as the energy used for heating UK homes accounts for around 14% of the UK total emissions of carbon dioxide, according to the Climate Change Committee.
From 2025, new homes will not be allowed to have gas heating, so the race is on to develop alternatives to gas boilers.
Another alternative to gas will undergo testing next year.
The British firm Heat Wayv will install heating units that use microwave technology in properties in the UK in the summer of 2022.
It has designed the units to replace any type of boiler and the firm says its unit will be cheaper to run over its lifetime than a gas boiler, although those calculations depend on the relative prices of gas and electricity. Once the company has reviewed the tests results the unit will go into full-scale production, probably in late spring of 2023.
(Source: www.bbc.com, dated 13th October, 2021)
13 JP Morgan fined $200 mn after employees found using personal chats for company business
U.S. regulators fined J.P. Morgan Securities $200 million for ‘widespread’ failures to preserve staff communications on personal mobile devices, messaging apps and emails, and are probing similar lapses at other financial institutions.
JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s broker-dealer subsidiary admitted to the charges and to violating securities laws. It also agreed to implement robust improvements to compliance policies in addition to a fine, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said in its $125 million order.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that it had fined the firm $75 million for the same issues.
‘The firm’s actions meaningfully impacted the SEC’s ability to investigate potential violations of the federal securities laws,’ the SEC said.
JP Morgan declined to comment.
The penalty is one of the first major enforcement actions brought under SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who was appointed by Democratic President Joe Biden and who has pledged to crack down on misconduct by Wall Street companies.
The SEC said it discovered that JP Morgan Securities had been violating rules that require firms to preserve written business communications when the broker was unable to produce records during the course of other investigations.
As a result of the JP Morgan probe, the SEC has opened investigations into other firms’ records-keeping practices, it said, confirming an October Reuters report.
‘This is an issue that we’re seeing at other firms,’ said an SEC official, adding that ‘individuals and entities that self-report’ will fare better in penalty negotiations.
From at least January, 2018 through November, 2020, JP Morgan Securities’ employees often communicated about securities business matters on their personal devices, using text messages, WhatsApp and personal email accounts, the SEC said.
None of these records were preserved. The lapses were institution-wide and known to senior management, who also used personal devices to discuss business matters, the SEC said.
It added that JP Morgan Securities agreed to retain a compliance consultant and to conduct a comprehensive review of its policies and procedures relating to the retention of electronic communications found on personal devices, among other remedies.
(Source: www.economictimes.com, dated 18th October, 2021)
II. World Economy
14 Fed sees three rate increases in 2022 as inflation battle begins
U.S. central bank drops reference to inflation as ‘transitory’. The Federal Reserve, signalling that its inflation target has been met, said recently it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March and pave the way for three quarter-percentage-point interest rate increases by the end of 2022 as it exits from policies enacted at the start of the health crisis.
In new economic projections released following its policy meeting, Fed officials forecast that inflation would run at 2.6% next year, compared with the 2.2% projected in September, and the unemployment rate would fall to 3.5% – near if not exceeding full employment.
Officials at the median projected the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate would need to rise from its current near-zero level to 0.90% by the end of 2022. That would kick off a raising cycle that would see the Fed’s policy rate climb to 1.6% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024– nearing but never exceeding levels that the Fed would consider restrictive of economic activity.
It is, in outline, the ‘soft landing’ that Fed officials hope will transpire with U.S. inflation gradually easing in coming years while unemployment remains low in a growing economy.
The timing of the first increase, the central bank said, would hinge solely on the path of a job market that is expected to continue improving in coming months.
Dropped from the policy statement was any reference to inflation as ‘transitory,’ with the Fed instead acknowledging that price increases had exceeded its 2% target ‘for some time.’
(Source: www.hindu.com, dated 16th December, 2021)
