For the first time after Independence, a democratically elected government completed its five-year term in Pakistan and elections were held for the National Assembly. After many years, the elections have been free and fair. There was always a fear that the elections will be delayed or aborted. Nawaz Sharif is expected to be elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan on 5th June for an unprecedented third time. His party, the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) won about 125 of the 272 directly elected seats in the National Assembly.
Since its independence, Pakistan has rarely had a stable, democratically elected government. The army in Pakistan has always played an important role and has a significant influence in the affairs of that country, unlike our country where the defence forces are subordinate to the political leadership of the country. Pakistan also has issues of dealing with terrorists and fundamentalists. The government of the day in that country cannot ignore them. In fact, often for a variety of reasons, it has helped these groups. The Economy of Pakistan is not in the best of shape. It also has to mend its relations with Afghanistan.
Both India and Pakistan have been, for decades, obsessed with each other. The Kashmir issue has been a bone of contention since the days of Partition. When faced with turbulence at home, the governments in both the countries deflect the attention of people by raising issues with the other country. However, in recent years, in the campaign for elections in India, the issues have been economic development, progress etc., rather than Pakistan. A similar change was seen in the recently concluded elections in Pakistan. All major parties campaigned on the plank of employment, education, inflation and development — domestic issues that concern the public. This, certainly, is a welcome trend.
It is heartening that democracy is taking roots in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif, after the elections, expressed the hope that relations with India will improve and he will work towards that. It is pointless to be euphoric about the statements made by him. It is too early to expect something dramatic that will change the situation. The army, the fundamentalists and the jihadis will not easily permit any government in Pakistan to succeed in improving relations with India. Their position is threatened if there is political and economic stability in Pakistan and good relations with India. It is also a fact that on an earlier occasion, Nawaz Sharif lost his prime ministership due to his inclination to develop relations with India.
One cannot forget various Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks that India has witnessed, particularly over the past few years. The Kargil War was fought when Nawaz Sharif was the premier of Pakistan. He claims that he was unaware of the exercise of infiltration in the Kargil area carried out by the army and the paramilitary forces. While he cannot escape the responsibility of what happened during his tenure, India cannot ignore it.
In spite of all this, it is in the interest of India that Pakistan (and also Bangladesh) have internal stability and a progressing economy. Just as when a student tastes success in examinations, he is motivated to study more and progress further, similarly when a country tastes economic success and progress, the people as well as the government start working towards further development rather than focussing on unproductive issues. We experienced that when the Indian economy was booming a few years back till the global meltdown and corruption within the country reversed the process.
Political developments in Pakistan are observed by other countries as well. Both the US and China have special interests in Pakistan. While the people of Pakistan have condemned the drone attacks by USA, America will never forget the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre. Yet Pakistan has generally been an ally of USA and in return, Washington has funded Pakistan from time to time.
India will go for elections in 2014 while the new government in Pakistan will be busy in stabilising its position. It is only then, that one really will be able to see progress, if any, in the relations between the two countries.
The experience with Pakistan has been different, yet the hope persists.
