By Rashmin Chandulal Sanghvi, Chartered Accountant
1. Preface
This is a simple
and short article explaining ‘what is an economic war’. The term: “Trade War”
has become current term. Earlier popular term was “Currency War”. Economic War
is a broader term covering all these smaller wars.
Some common queries
may be: “Why this War?” “What may be the impact of a global economic war on
India/ on global economy?” “Can we protect India from the ill effects of a war
amongst other nations?” “How is it that President Trump imposed sanctions on
Turkey (In August 2018) and Indian Rupee went down?”
This article
presents:
(i) Historical reasons leading to current
Trade War; and
(ii) A few probabilities as results of war. These are considered guesses.
I don’t know actually how future will unfold.
Global events like
Economic Wars are like “elephants”. Writers and observers are like “the
six blind men”. Everyone looks at one or two aspects. Warring parties
involved also create deliberate confusions. I am presenting my views. There are
several other views simultaneously prevalent. Some philosophical thoughts on
Wars are given in notes at the end of the article.
1.2 Definition: An
Economic War is fought mainly for economic benefits using economic instruments
as weapons. Its economic impact can be more devastating than a weapons war. And
yet, there may be no loss of life – at least directly due to war.
1.3 When the war is between a
giant like USA and a smaller country like Venezuela; the smaller nation may get
economically destroyed. When the war is between two giants like USA &
China, both may be damaged. If a full scale Economic World War erupts,
global economy can be seriously damaged. Whole world will be poorer.
Share markets should normally be the first victim. Yet, even now the market
indices have not fallen. This may be because: (i) the cartel of share market
giants may be convinced that all these “War Cries” are just Trump’s typical
style of negotiating. Once the declared opponents concede, there will be no
war. Or (ii) they may be offloading their stocks to the gullible retail
investors. Or (iii) the Cartel may have some other strategy.
1.4 Different economic
weapons are:
i) Currency exchange rate manipulation or
currency dumping (also called Currency War);
(ii) Globalisation & imposition of a particular
currency at the cost of others (Dollarisation);
(iii) Tariffs (Custom duties);
(iv) Import restrictions of the licensing type &
others;
(v) Nationalisation of assets & businesses
belonging to enemy Government and citizens of enemy country. US government has
done this repeatedly.
(vi) Sanctions; rhetoric & threats; etc.
(vii) Finally when
nothing works, weapons wars have been unleashed in the last few decades. The threat
of real weapons war makes rhetoric work. North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un knew
well that his fate will not be different from the fate of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein
and Libya’s Gaddafi. Hence, Kim came to the negotiating table.
1.5 Almost all wars
are fought for economic reasons (Greed of exploiting other nations’
resources for own benefit) and/or for ego issues. Even in today’s modern
world, large nations may go to war largely for ego. Generally many issues are
mixed up as the cause for a war. Mahabharat war was fought largely for
economics & ego. Duryodhan was greedy & egotist. He would not fulfil
his promise. War became necessary. Hitler started 2nd world war for
redeeming the German pride & for economic reasons. USA has started current
trade war with China & several other countries mainly for economic reasons.
1.6 Many people are
greedy. This applies to individuals, societies, corporates and countries.
They want economic benefits at the cost of others. Generally they will start
with exploitations. If the exploited person, group, market does not
understand, fine. If, even after understanding, the exploited group cannot
fight back, there is apparent peace – which in economics may be called “Equilibrium”.
When someone resists, the equilibrium is disturbed. Systems are established
to frustrate resistance. When systems do not work and exploited people/
countries fight back; there may be a weapons war. Generally the exploited lobby
is further destroyed. Rarely the exploited sections win & exploiters lose the
war. Historians
praise victors.
Two illustrations
of economic exploitation within a country are given below: paragraphs 1.7 &
1.9.
1.7 Illustration 1: In
India the “Upper Caste” developed an entire caste system of exploiting the
“Lower Castes”. Religion & mythology have been used to confuse &
confound the poor people; and to establish & continue the exploitative
caste system. Similarly, religion & gender bias have been used by men to
exploit women. They (‘lower’ caste people & women) were deprived of even
education beyond their occupation by birth. It worked for thousands of years.
No amount of social reforms by several reformers including Gandhiji has
effectively removed Casteism from our society. (People living in big cities may
not have the idea of deep rooted caste prejudices in smaller towns &
villages.) Indian Constitution gave equal rights to women; and to every
individual irrespective of caste. Every Indian has a right to education. This
single step has maximum positive impact.
Indian Supreme
Court has now given equal rights to LGBT community & declared
individual freedom as corner stone of our constitution. But even these have
still not completely removed caste based prejudices and exploitations from our
society.
This is an
explosive subject & can provoke heated discussions on several issues.
1.8 My purposes for giving illustrations here are
to show that:
(a) Economic exploitation is all pervasive in
human life. Greed is almost like gravity – pulling every one down. Both
(Greed & Gravity) are not noticed in everyday life. Most people never
realise that they are: (i) exploiting others; and/or (ii) they are being
exploited. We Indians exploit others when we get opportunity. Exploitation is
not special to some people.
(b) At the same time, there can be NO
generalisations. Most social reformers have come from men and ‘upper
castes’.
(c) Exploitations have reversed also. As held by
Honourable SC in India, some backward caste people have abused the provisions
of The Scheduled Castes and Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989. In
life there are several cross-currents.
1.9 Illustration 2: In USA, whole population is exploited
by business lobbies. Pharmaceutical Lobby and Insurance
lobby – to name two. For anyone in doubt, ask for costs of medicines and
medical services in USA; and compare with the costs in India. You will realise
how US residents are being exploited by Pharma lobby & Insurance lobby.
Banking Lobby
In the past, US
Government tightly regulated banks & financial institutions which
used public money. They were not allowed to indulge in speculation & in
derivatives with depositors’ money. The banking lobby got the regulations modified
and openly used public savings for dangerous speculation including derivatives.
Banks & Financial Institutions together brought about the Great American
Economic Crisis of the years 2007 & onwards. Economists of the world
know that ‘greed of banks and financial institutions’ was the primary cause for
the crisis. Nothing happened to bankers or to banking laws. Whole focus as
“Cause for Crisis” was shifted to tax planning; and BEPS programme was started
by G20 & OECD.
In USA, the weapons
lobby (Pentagon) is of course most powerful. Whole of USA is being
exploited for continuing wars and weapons productions. In fact, world has
financed American wars. This statement may look unbelievable. I have explained
it in some of my past articles. For a short statement, listen to CNBC interview
of Jack Ma – chairman of Alibaba at:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/01/25/alibaba-chairman-jack-ma-on-meeting-donald-trump.html?__source=sharebar%7Cemail&par=sharebar
Current US initiated Trade War
2. Current
Trade War – started in July, 2018:
2.1 We come to current US
initiated Trade War. The Trade War has already started. So we are not
discussing empty theories. It is also possible that by the time, BCAS Journal
is printed and you read this article; a lot of developments would have taken
place.
2.2 To understand the
reason why Trump has started this trade war, we may consider several matters.
2.3 Trump’s theories: Trump claims that USA is the most liberal
country and rest of the world is taking undue advantage of USA. This is at the
cost of GDP, trade deficits and employment in USA. Since other countries are
not responding to his appeals; war is necessary. He also claims that USA is the
most powerful economy as well as army. So the war will be won by USA.
2.4 Trump has conveniently forgotten
past strategies implemented by USA. Today, when those strategies have
resulted in unemployment in USA, Trump loves to blame China & others. (See
Jack Ma’s interview on link given under paragraph 1.9 above and also see
paragraphs 5 & 6 below.)
2.5 War mongering: Every warrior – whether Individual or
Government – spreads several theories including incorrect theories that justify
the war. World has neither forgotten nor forgiven the campaign that US & UK
had spread when they decided to attack Iraq. They alleged after September 2001
(World Trade Centre attack by Al Qaeda) that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had
accumulated “Weapons Of Mass Destruction” (WMD) which could be used
against..(?). It was known that Iraq neither had WMD nor the capability to
strike USA. It was later that the world realised that real purpose of attack
was – to punish Saddam Hussein – who defied US order to ‘sell oil only in US$’.
Saddam sold oil in Euro and got killed. Iraq got economically destroyed for not
obeying USA.
This is a clear
illustration of the hypothesis (Please see paragraph 1.6 above.) that: “when
economic exploitation is resisted, the victim is destroyed by weapons war”.
For eg., Saddam Hussein resisted US
Dollarisation of Iraqi crude oil exports. And Iraq was attacked by US. And
the world remained a silent spectator.
2.6 Even a strong army
may not open war on all fronts. But initially it seemed that Trump
opened up war on several fronts. He blamed almost all – (i) known adversaries
of USA as well as (ii) countries that considered themselves as strong allies of
USA. (Please see Note 1 below.) This second category includes Mexico, Canada,
UK & European Union (EU). After a lot of war rhetoric against EU; on 24th
July, 2018, EU president Jean Claude Juncker met Trump and a temporary truce
has been signed. (Please see note No. 5 below.)
India has been
warned by Trump. But India is an insignificant trade partner of USA and hence
is on the low burner. (Don’t feel bad. We, Indians are still insignificant in
world economy.) There is also another equation of – using India to fight China.
So how USA behaves with India – is yet to be seen.
2.7 Some History: After 2nd
world war, USA turned benevolent to all war victim countries including the
countries attacked by USA – Germany and Japan. To protect Western Lobby from
Russian threat, NATO was formed. Under NATO and similar other
agreements, the US army is present in every West European country and many
others. 72 years after the end of World War II, and 26 years after
dismemberment of USSR, US army is still present in Europe and several other
countries. Hence even Germany observes restrain while protesting against US
policies. Others have to simply toe the line.
2.8 Truth under the surface:
In USA, the President is most conspicuous person. He is the spokesman
for the whole Government. But his real power and impact may be far less than
apparent. There is an Establishment of think tanks, bureaucrats & lobbies
that works. They continue to work irrespective of the President for the time
being.
Illustration: When, in 1981, Ronald Reagan became the President, many
observers wrote him off as an ineffective failure from film industry. In 1982,
preparations for an Economic War against USSR started. (For some
details, see Note 2 below.) Reagan retired in 1988. The Economic attack on USSR
was made in the year 1992. Credit for the great event – destruction of USSR –
is being given to Reagan. However, who actually fought the war? The Establishment
which remains behind curtains fought the real economic war.
US policies (Paragraphs 3 to 6 below):
3. Super
Power No.1
3.1 It is US policy that US
should always remain Super Power No.1. All other countries should start from
No. 11 & onwards. If any country becomes so strong that it can challenge;
or does challenge US authority in some serious manner; it will be destroyed by
several alternatives available with USA. One of the alternatives is: Economic
War. Economic wars may take ten years preparations also.
3.2 I believe that an
action plan to hit China’s powers was already prepared long before Trump
decided to stand in election. Now that the Establishment has got a suitable
President, the war is started.
3.3 China has started
serious process to make Chinese Yuan a currency of international
trade. It has asked Russia, India and several countries to start their
bilateral trade in bilateral currencies. This is a challenge to the
Dollarisation of global trade.
China has started
serious endeavour to reduce its holding of US treasury bonds. China is
developing international foreign exchange markets in Yuan. This is a direct
challenge to Dollarisation of the international trade & investment.
China is today 2nd
largest economy. Chinese military and mind-set are the only powers on
earth that can say “No” to USA. (Apart from President Putin of
Russia.) The “One Belt One Road”
project by China is an audacious plan to increase Chinese influence globally.
Expanding Chinese bases in South China Sea; building a chain of ports in
countries like Srilanka, Pakistan, Djibouti etc., is a threat to American ego
for its largest military presence all over the world.
These are more than
enough causes for USA to set in motion a plan to destroy China. The plan may or
may not be similar to the plan for USSR. The Establishment waited for
suitable opportunity and struck when suitable president was in chair. Further
plans will unfold as the days go by.
4. Dollarisation of Global Trade:
It is another
unwritten order that whole world should do its international trade in US $.
When this order is not obeyed, see what happens:
4.1 Iran & Venezuela are facing allegations of being
terrorist nations. Severe sanctions are imposed on them crippling common life.
Their offense: exporting crude oil in currencies other than US$.
4.2 South East Asian
countries – Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines – went
insolvent in the year 1997 because they started exporting their goods to Japan
in Japanese Yen instead of US $. President Suharto of Indonesia committed
another offense of disobeying US order of allowing independence to East Timor.
(Population 12,00,000.) Suharto lost his power and Indonesia lost East Timor.
4.3 Iraq was attacked
and destroyed because it was selling oil in Euro. European Union understands
fully well that this is an indirect attack on EURO. However, EU can’t do much
except being a silent spectator.
4.4 EU launched Euro on 1st
January, 1999. This was a challenge to Dollar
monopoly of international currency. Hence EURO suffered a massive
economic attack. Its exchange rate dropped from “1 Euro = $ 1.2” to “1 Euro = $
0.8”.
These are just some
illustrations of how US enforces Dollarisation of global trade &
investments – by fighting economic wars on the world.
4.5 Having Dollarised
global financial settlements, now US has Weaponised Dollar. She is using
$ as a weapon. If any nation, any bank or financial institution disobeys US
dictates, its international payments will be crippled. That entity’s international business will
almost be stopped.
5. Using World for
outsourcing labour:
Outsourcing is done
for many decades. Computer software outsourcing through the internet made it
famous. However, outsourcing manufacturing functions is far older tradition.
5.1 There was a time
when the US Establishment adopted a policy. “Reserve US manufacturing for high
tech products and for weapons. Even for high tech items US MNCs need to own
only the technology. Manufacturing was shifted abroad and commoditised. All low
value manufacturing should be outsourced.” First outsourcing started with Japan.
Then major supplier of labour was China. The Establishment’s theory was
as under. Manufacturing within USA has high labour cost. China can provide
cheap labour. So let China manufacture goods. US want only sales and
distribution of cheap goods from abroad. This way, US consumers would get goods
at cheaper prices. And MNCs will make higher profits. Around 1980, China was
‘advised’ to devalue its currency. Chinese currency was devalued from Two
Yuan per $ to Four Yuan per $. By the year 1993, Yuan depreciated to Eight
Yuan per Dollar.
5.2 A devaluation of Chinese
currency means: (i) US gets same goods for much less dollars. (ii) Chinese
individual exporter –who counts his profits in Yuan, feels that he is still
making good profits. (iii) China as a whole suffers massive losses. In fact
devaluation meant poor Chinese people subsidising rich Americans.
American MNCs would
go to China and set up factories there. China would feel happy as “foreign
direct investment” was flowing into the country bringing precious dollars.
However, all low value products and environmentally harmful production was
being shifted to China.
5.3 This was an
elaborate plan. Explaining it in easier terms would mean several pages of
article. I would end this second US strategy in short here.
6. Results of outsourcing were:
6.1 Americans were getting goods
at low prices. Inflation within USA was always under control.
American consumer was happy. American business made good profits in marketing
and distribution.
6.2 American labour
jobs were exported abroad. This was planned by US establishment. It was not
an unknown development. In a super capitalist country, it is a declared policy
that “there is no job security in USA.” Business creates several entry barriers
for competition and secures its safety. But as far as labour is concerned, it
has to simply hope. Simultaneously, even education is fully commercialised in USA.
It is very costly. Middle class and poor cannot afford higher education. Hence
supply of blue collar labour kept on increasing and employment opportunities
kept on going down.
6.3 This outsourcing
policy has gone on for a few decades. Whole generations of middle class have
become poorer than their parents. Trump realised this gap in US economic
system. He used it for his political advantage. Now, to fulfil his election
promise to bring jobs back to USA, he has to start a Trade War. This is what
the Establishment wants.
This is the
reason why USA has started a Trade War.
See preface
paragraph 1(i).
Summary so far: There is a serious challenge to USA’s Super Power status and
monopoly of Dollar. USA has started a pre-emptive strike before the challenge becomes
serious.
Note: US economic policies require decades of study to understand. It is
difficult to explain in one article. I have tried to simplify and summarise.
Another way of understanding real life economics is personal discussions at
BCAS study circle for International Economics.
7. Indian Government:
Very few Indians
give due importance to Economics Wars. Fewer still understand it. In these
chaotic and dangerous times we need a Government that fully understands the
risks to which whole world is now exposed; and implements plans to protect
Indian economy. In my humble submission our present Prime Minister understands
these matters far better than most other PMs. He has the will power and the
capability to protect Indian economy.
We may remember
that in 1992 & 1997 a cartel did attack primarily USSR and South East Asia.
Attacks on Indian economy were incidental. The 2007 American Economic Crisis
spread over almost entire globe. In all three instances, it was primarily GOI
and RBI which managed and protected Indian economy. Government bureaucracy
continues to be same – probably, now more competent and empowered. We should be
able to sail through.
Sadly, we do not
have any private sector think tanks that can help GOI.
8. Indian share market:
For a long period
Indian share market has behaved as if it has no connection with Indian economy.
In a war, such myths get exposed and destroyed. If the war is prolonged, Indian
share market can be badly affected.
9. Can we estimate how the Trade War will proceed
further?
What will be the
results for Global economy?
See preface
paragraph 1(ii).
The war can go any
which way. It is difficult to guess how it will go. And yet, there are people
with huge investments in global markets. Apart from investors in shares and
securities, there are large industrial investments that can be seriously
affected. They would want considered estimates of the consequences of the
current Trade War. Can anyone advise them? I cannot advise. But I am presenting
some extreme opposite probabilities.
Some probable
results:
9.1 Trump made all
kinds of noises, insults and threats against several countries. But he settled
without firing a single bullet – with North Korea and Mexico. There is a
compromise of sorts with EU. Canada may soon fall. It is possible that Trump
may win the “War on the World” simply by threats. Only China refuses to
succumb.
9.2 Past Economic Wars – Instruments used:
Some of the past
Economic Wars have shown that these wars are fought by US Government using
following instruments:
(i) media for
public mind manipulation; (ii) IMF, UN & World Bank; (iii) cartel of banks
& financial institutions (iv) American Think Tanks (v) fact that Dollar is
the global currency.
We may refer to all
these together as Economic War Group. Note that only USA has all these
war instruments.
Secrecy of their strategy is their strength. They will never tell “what” is
their target; and “how” and “when” they will try to achieve the target.
The issue of “When”
is answered as the Trade War with China has already started.
Let us assume that
Chinese Government is fully aware of this strategy of economic wars. To fight
this strategy, China needs similar group of international institutions under
its control; control over global media; global currency; and so on. It is well
known that no country other than USA has this strength. So, how can China win
the war? Make your own guess.
9.3 China’s possible alternative response:
In absence of a
comparable Economic War Group, what can China do? What can be the consequences?
Consider the war
background before proceeding.
1. USA is the largest debtor country.
Borrowing is now a compulsion. She needs to borrow every day $ 2 Bn. If the
world stops subscribing to US treasury bonds; US Government will stop
functioning.
2. Several countries around the world are fed
up of US hegemony. But “Who will bell the cat?” Who will throw the first
salvo? Once a nation strikes against US Economic war; many nations may join.
3. Trump is unpopular within and outside
USA. Long hand of law may catch up with Trump. Whether the next president will
be friendly with the “Establishment” or not; is an issue.
Possible
Response: Let us say, China takes following steps
& US responds step by step or at one stroke. (Note: This is pure
hypothesis. And yet, it is possible.) China owns largest quantity of US
treasury bonds and currency as its foreign exchange reserve.
CHINA
China dumps US
treasury bonds & currency worth one trillion Dollars in the market in
one day for cash settlement. Then China refuses to buy any further US treasury
bonds. China refuses to sell any goods to USA on credit or for $ payment. She
demands either gold or Yuan or commodities in payment for any export to USA.
USA
US Treasury bond
market can crash.
Or
US Government &
Economic War Group can try to buy entire stock on the same day. This may not be
practical because China would demand cash payment. This would not be a
“futures” transaction. This would be sale by China “in Cash” for immediate
payment.
EU, Canada &
Mexico may follow China and refuse to sell goods on credit to US customers.
US need to borrow
every day. If the funds are not available, Government machinery will stop. It
has now happened several times that US Govt. could not pay its expenses &
non-essential services had to be stopped. Then the Govt. increased borrowing
limits & paid its expenses out of borrowings. Fiscal Cliff has been
discussed several times. It is a serious reality for which no American
Government has any solution. Real financial position of USA is weaker than what
is made out.
Now, if the world
stops lending to USA, what can US do? She will have to finance expenses by
simply printing notes. If there is no outside taker of US notes, deficit
financing will cause immediate and significant inflation. A country that
has not seen more than 2% inflation, will be shocked by 10% inflation.
More important, a
lot of commodities that US public takes for granted, will simply not
be available. US talks of shifting production from China to USA. Can it
start fresh factories in a short time? There can be huge uproar within USA
making US Government fall. So far, all wars have been fought beyond American
land. This war will be fought within USA. For the first time Americans
may suffer consequences of the war.
China’s response to
Economic War – by an attack on US $ – may work better if Japan, EU, Canada
& Mexico etc., join in the Economic World War. Normally US would succeed in
“divide & rule policy” & won’t allow all of them to join
together. However, the way Trump behaves, probability of a combined front
against USA has improved. Against a combined front USA is doomed. In absence of
a combined front, ‘who will win’ becomes uncertain. Only certainty will be –
world economy will be damaged.
9.4 How long the world will go
on fighting?
How can world
avoid all wars?
One solution
appears. If there were a World Government, all wars would be
unnecessary. We have a good experience also. In India, at some time, there were
more than seven hundred kingdoms. Huge amount of their resources were spent on
war & defence. Now India is one country. All Kingdoms have merged into one.
There is no war within India. Of course, there are differences and troubles.
But these can’t be compared with wars.
Another solution
may be: At the root of all wars, there are greed and ego. Consider –
hypothetically, a solution where greed and ego are replaced by love &
spirituality. There would simply be no wars of any kind. Not a single soul
would go without food, medical services, education & home. Then the form of
Government would be irrelevant.
May God Bless human
kind.
Notes:
Note 1. Allies: (See para No. 2.4) India, Pakistan, Britain or
any other country may consider itself to be a friend of USA. However, in
economics as in politics; no one is a permanent enemy and no one is a permanent
friend. Britain and European Union (EU) realised this fact when US cartel
attacked Euro on 1st January, 1999 – the day of Euro’s launch.
Trump’s accusations against EU have made this fact abundantly clear.
Note 2. Outsourcing & Exchange Rates:
Japan:
In the year 1940,
Japanese Yen to US $ rate was 4 yen = $1. After 2nd
world war defeat of Japan huge inflation took place in Japan. US occupied Japan
& controlled its economy. It is then that US outsourcing to Japan started.
Yen was depreciated to 360 Yen = $1.
After a few
decades, Japan grew in manufacturing strength. Japanese cars started winning
the competition with American cars. This is when Japan was asked to revalue its
currency. Eventually, it appreciated to 140 yen to a dollar in the year 1990.
And Japan went into deep recession. 1990s was called the lost decade for Japan.
By now rate has gone up to 112 yens per dollar.
US Strategy is: when a country is pure commodity supplier, its currency must be
down. When it starts competing with US manufacturers, its currency must
appreciate.
My observations: Japan is excellent in manufacturing and poor in international
economics. It followed the dictates of US Establishment in exchange rate policy
and suffers. China is refusing to obey the orders by the Establishment. Hence
the Trade War.
Note 3. An Illustration of past
Economic War: 1992 economic war on USSR.
In the year 1982
under president Reagan, US Establishment started preparations for economic war
against USSR. For the public & media consumption, “Star Wars” were started
to maintain US superiority in air war over USSR. Real strategy was – massive
expenditure in developing missiles and counter missiles made USSR insolvent, US
printed dollars & world grabbed dollars as $ was global currency. World
was financing US Star War. No one was buying USSR Rouble & hence no one
financed USSR in her Star War. Result was – USSR insolvency.
Reagan retired in
1989. In the year 1992 USSR was economically destabilised because of sudden
change from communist regime to democratic regime installed by President
Mikhail Gorbachev. KGB arrested Gorbachev and nation was thrown in chaos. At
that time the G4 – US, UK, France and Germany together with their cartel of
banks and financial institutions struck. USSR got divided into fifteen
countries and economically went insolvent. It got reduced from the position
of Super Power No. 2 to 11. USA won the Cold War without losing men or money.
Note 4. Strategies like outsourcing
may not be a Government of USA decision. Nor a one man decision. Initially,
businesses found it profitable to shift labour abroad. Then Government
supported it. Eventually it developed into a full national strategy.
Note 5. Trump’s negotiating
strategy is now famous. “First threaten the opponent with dire
consequences. When the opponent is mentally broken, negotiate on your own
terms.” This is what he did with North Korea and Mexico. This is how he
negotiated a temporary truce with European Union.
This truce has
given USA tremendous benefit. Consider the news that China was making overtures
with EU to make a joint attack on USA. EU was scared but was considering
joining hands with China. Now Trump has ensured that EU will stay with US.
China is the lonely warrior.
Note 6. More and more
nations are disillusioned about US hegemony. Finance Minister of Germany
– Mr. Heiko Maas came out with clear statement that – US is
using $ monopoly for suppressing other nations. Even the global Swift Payment
system based in Belgium is using US$ for settlements. EU must come out with its
own international settlement system independent of US $. Prime Minister Ms.
Merkel of Germany quickly contradicted. She said: US defence deal with Germany
is far more important. See the link –
https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-quashes-german-foreign-minister-heiko-maas-anti-american-dream/.
Soon French
President stated that US defence deal is no longer reliable. EU must not depend
exclusively on US for its defence.
Note 7. Ego: It is said: “Eleven Sadhus can stay in one
hut. But two Samrats cannot stay in one Samrajya”.
Note 8. Advait:
1. Indian philosophy of Advait has taught me
that “We are all one”. “?? ?? ?? ??” is a famous Indian slogan.
2. Hence no one is my enemy. When “We are all
one”; the concept of enemy is void ab initio.
3. We have to live in this practical Sansar
knowing the philosophy and yet being alert about people who, under the
influence of greed, are out to harm us. Protect ourselves. Protect the weak.
Hate none.
Note 9. Geeta:
Consider what Trump
representing US Government thinks: “I am the Super Power No. 1. I must get what
I demand. I can & will destroy all competition. Who can fight me?”
See here Geeta
chapter 16 shlok 14 as translated by Swami Chinmayanandji: (Without any
modification.)
“Businessmen in
the world, unknown to themselves, constantly chant this stanza in their heart
of hearts. “I destroyed one competitor in the market, and now I must destroy
the remaining competitors also.” …”In fact, what can those poor men do to stop
me from doing what I want?”… “Because there is none equal to me in any
respect…I am the Lord. I enjoy, I am the most successful man. I am strong in
influence, among political leaders, in my business connections, and in my bank
balance. I am strong and healthy….” This, in short, is the ego’s SONG OF
SUCCESS that is even hummed in the heart of a true materialist. Under the spell
of this Satanic lullaby, the higher instincts and the divine urges in man go
into a sleep of intoxication.
Most people keep
Geeta on one side while analysing commercial/ economic/ war matters. I
personally submit: Geeta is a way of life. Without incorporating principles of
Geeta in life, it (life) has no meaning at all. Consequences of a person’s
actions will be as projected in Geeta.
Nature has its own
way of dealing with any person (Individual, company or Government) who
continuously abuses others. Nature’s ways are unpredictable and beyond our
logic.
10. In my reading,
it is possible that the Trade wars started by USA – together will several other
factors; will bring about the downfall of USA. Then what? Some other greedy
people will exploit the world. Men have been fighting wars for thousands of
years. When will it stop?
Wars will stop when
people become free from forces of Maya – Greed and Ego. In other words, wars
will stop when people become spiritual.
