Emerging economies like India have to work towards reducing vulnerabilities in their economies, said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan.
Lower interest rates and tax incentives can boost investments, he said, but consumer demand holds the key for economic growth.
“Emerging economies have to work to reduce vulnerabilities in their economies, to get to the point where, like Australia or Canada, they can allow exchange rate flexibility to do much of the adjustment for them to capital inflows,” said Rajan in his speech to the Economic Club of New York.
However, it takes time to develop the required institutions. In the meantime, the difficulty for emerging markets in absorbing large amounts of capital quickly and in a stable way should be seen as a constraint, much like the zero lower bound, rather than something that can be altered quickly, said the RBI governor. Due to this, he said, even while resisting the temptation of absorbing flows, emerging markets will look for safety nets. In the past, India has been attracting large foreign flows in domestic markets.
“We also need better international safety nets. And each one of us has to work hard in our own countries to develop a consensus for free trade, open markets, and responsible global citizenry. If we can achieve all this even as the recent economic events make us more parochial and inward-looking, we will truly have set the stage for the strong sustainable growth we all desperately need,” Rajan said.
Rajan also nudged international organisations like the International Monetary Fund to re-examine the “rules of the game” for a responsible policy. “No matter what a central bank’s domestic mandate, international responsibilities should not be ignored. The IMF should analyse each new unconventional monetary policy (including sustained unidirectional exchange rate intervention), and based on their effects and the agreed rules of the game, declare them in- or out-of-bound,” he added.
According to Rajan, the current non-system in international monetary policy is a source of substantial risk, both to sustainable growth and to the financial sector. “It is not an industrial country problem, nor an emerging market problem, it is a problem of collective action. We are being pushed towards competitive monetary easing and musical crises.” There is a need for stronger well-capitalised multilateral institutions with widespread legitimacy, some of which can provide patient capital and others that can monitor new rules of the game, said Rajan. The governor said industrial countries should export to emerging markets as a way to bolster growth. This is because they have done so in the past, too.
(Source: Article by Mr. Raghuram Rajan, RBI Governor, in ‘Business Standard’ dated 19-05-2015.)
